KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

53%

42%

29%

27%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.85u · HRES −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:21+00:00	84.9%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	84.9%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	84.9%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	84.9%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	84.9%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	89.7%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	91.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	89.7%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	91.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:41+00:00	89.7%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	91.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	89.7%	47.3%	98.0%	61.8%	91.1%
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00	89.7%	47.3%	98.0%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	89.7%	30.5%	84.7%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	89.7%	30.5%	84.7%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	89.7%	30.5%	84.7%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	75.7%	30.5%	84.7%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	76.0%	30.6%	84.3%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	84.3%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	84.3%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	84.3%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	63.4%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	63.4%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	76.0%	29.3%	63.4%	24.2%	91.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	63.4%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	63.4%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	63.4%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	63.4%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	63.4%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	50.7%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	53.0%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	53.0%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	53.0%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	53.0%	29.3%	57.6%	26.7%	41.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	64.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	63.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	60.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	59.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗