KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

53%

42%

29%

27%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.85u · HRES −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	79.8%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	71.6%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	16.3%	80.6%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	75.4%	81.6%	22.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	86.1%	76.3%	23.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	16.4%	69.1%	14.6%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	30.1%	74.5%	23.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	2.2%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	17.8%	18.9%	30.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	17.8%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	7.0%	14.6%	43.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	15.0%	16.1%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	11.5%	15.4%	36.4%	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.8%	29.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	15.9%	15.9%	22.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	7.3%	16.4%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	8.6%	14.5%	17.6%	0.1%	4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	19.0%	15.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	18.3%	13.1%	19.8%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	27.6%	13.5%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	22.4%	17.5%	14.7%	0.0%	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	34.7%	7.8%	17.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	32.0%	9.5%	20.8%	7.5%	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	28.0%	18.2%	13.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	17.3%	—	2.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	64.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	63.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	60.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	59.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗