KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

62%

53%

48%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.45u · HRES −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:23+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	94.0%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	94.0%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	92.2%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	92.2%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	92.2%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	79.0%	66.8%	92.2%	61.8%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	92.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	92.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	92.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	92.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	92.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	72.2%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	85.2%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	86.4%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	86.4%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	86.4%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	73.6%	66.8%	86.4%	52.4%	72.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00	71.3%	66.8%	86.4%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	71.3%	66.8%	86.4%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	71.3%	66.8%	86.4%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	71.3%	66.8%	86.4%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	71.3%	66.8%	86.4%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	71.3%	63.9%	84.3%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	71.3%	63.9%	84.3%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	71.3%	63.9%	84.3%	47.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	72.1%	63.4%	84.3%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	72.1%	63.4%	84.3%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	84.3%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	84.3%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	87.0%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:12+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	87.0%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	87.0%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	72.1%	62.6%	87.0%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	87.0%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	87.0%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	87.0%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	87.0%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	75.9%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	74.4%	62.6%	84.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00	74.7%	62.6%	84.3%	48.1%	53.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	74.7%	62.6%	84.3%	48.1%	53.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	74.7%	62.6%	84.3%	48.1%	53.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	74.7%	62.6%	84.3%	48.1%	53.4%
2026-10-19T10:34:45+00:00	74.7%	62.6%	84.3%	48.1%	53.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	74.7%	62.5%	89.0%	48.1%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	58.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	57.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	55.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	54.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	54.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗