KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

62%

53%

48%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.45u · HRES −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	49.4%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	76.0%	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	84.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	69.8%	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	92.3%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	99.5%	—	85.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	99.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	86.8%	96.4%	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	95.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	68.9%	74.8%	82.9%	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	65.0%	58.7%	79.0%	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	78.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	71.7%	66.3%	89.3%	66.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	53.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	46.8%	43.6%	84.1%	55.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	41.1%	53.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	47.5%	45.0%	72.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	51.7%	47.4%	—	43.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	51.7%	47.4%	56.1%	46.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	50.0%	53.6%	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	60.9%	50.9%	40.9%	38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	50.0%	51.9%	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	51.9%	49.0%	51.9%	33.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	53.0%	45.0%	—	35.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	52.1%	37.8%	45.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	58.4%	20.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	56.5%	19.0%	40.3%	36.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	50.0%	30.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	58.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	57.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	55.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	54.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	54.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗