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KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
99%
WN2
94%
EPS
82%
ICON
73%
HRES
32%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u
VS
HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:0010-14 10:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:0098.8%82.5%93.6%31.8%73.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single99%72.1°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%67.7°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%63.7°F4.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON73%65.6°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend55%60.0°F4.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES32%56.5°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗