KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

82%

73%

32%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	23.7%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	48.8%	—	44.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	61.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	39.5%	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	73.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	96.2%	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	60.7%	82.9%	—	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	34.9%	41.6%	52.8%	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	29.7%	24.3%	45.6%	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	44.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	35.1%	29.6%	61.3%	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	14.0%	12.3%	50.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	10.6%	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	13.4%	12.0%	33.0%	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	15.2%	12.8%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	14.6%	12.2%	17.2%	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	13.0%	15.0%	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	19.0%	12.9%	8.3%	7.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.8%	12.7%	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	12.1%	10.7%	12.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.9%	8.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	10.8%	5.5%	8.2%	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	13.2%	1.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	11.4%	1.2%	5.3%	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	7.9%	2.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	72.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	67.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	63.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	56.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗