KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

54%

43%

22%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

HRESNO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.15u · HRES −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	98.0%	55.7%	86.5%	26.4%	69.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	98.0%	55.7%	86.5%	26.4%	69.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	98.0%	55.7%	86.5%	26.4%	69.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	75.1%	55.7%	86.5%	26.4%	69.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	75.1%	55.7%	86.4%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	86.4%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	86.4%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	86.4%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	69.1%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	69.1%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	75.1%	54.3%	69.1%	26.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	69.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	69.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	69.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	69.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	69.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	41.5%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	42.9%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	42.9%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	42.9%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	42.9%	54.3%	63.3%	22.4%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	56%	61.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	61.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	59.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	55.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 61°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗