KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

54%

43%

22%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

HRESNO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.15u · HRES −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	19.6%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	43.0%	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	55.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	33.5%	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	67.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	94.7%	—	52.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	93.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	54.0%	78.2%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	75.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	28.6%	34.9%	45.8%	23.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	23.7%	18.9%	38.5%	27.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	36.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	28.3%	23.4%	53.8%	23.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	13.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	10.0%	8.7%	42.1%	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	7.3%	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.3%	8.3%	25.8%	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	10.7%	8.8%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	10.1%	8.3%	12.2%	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	8.8%	10.3%	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.4%	8.6%	5.3%	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	7.7%	8.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.9%	6.8%	7.9%	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	7.6%	5.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.7%	3.2%	4.9%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	8.3%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	7.0%	0.6%	2.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	1.4%	2.2%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	56%	61.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	61.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	59.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	55.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 61°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗