KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

77%

77%

50%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.80u · EPS −28.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	89.3%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	89.3%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	89.3%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	81.3%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	91.8%	56.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	91.8%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	67.1%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	63.0%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	63.0%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	63.0%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	63.0%	48.8%	92.7%	55.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	93.7%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	93.7%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	96.0%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	96.0%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	96.0%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	81.8%	50.0%	96.0%	64.2%	60.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	96.0%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	96.0%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	96.0%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	96.0%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	96.0%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	70.7%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	92.4%	86.5%	77.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	60.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	59.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	58.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	55.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	54.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗