KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

77%

77%

50%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.80u · EPS −28.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	99.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	97.3%	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	97.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	82.4%	—	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	70.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	34.2%	49.3%	—	54.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	45.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	34.3%	35.6%	57.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	40.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	80.1%	29.7%	56.6%	48.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	36.5%	35.8%	52.3%	48.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	42.1%	72.6%	79.4%	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	21.2%	80.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	65.5%	90.3%	88.4%	54.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	50.9%	90.8%	—	68.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	67.8%	97.5%	95.3%	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	60.7%	98.5%	—	73.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	87.1%	98.8%	96.1%	82.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	99.3%	88.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	99.7%	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	95.1%	85.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	60.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	59.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	58.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	55.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	54.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗