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KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≤ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 13:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
EPS
8%
ICON
6%
HRES
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 5.1¢Risks 1.28u
VS
WN2NO 94.9¢Risks 23.72u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.72u · WN2 −23.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:0010-18 08:0010-18 11:0210-18 13:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:009.6%14.0%0.2%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:009.6%14.0%0.2%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:009.6%14.0%0.2%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:009.6%14.0%0.2%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:009.6%14.0%0.2%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:009.6%7.8%0.6%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:009.6%7.8%0.6%1.5%5.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:009.6%7.8%0.6%1.5%5.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single10%56.5°F4.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%57.3°F4.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%57.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON6%58.3°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%61.4°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend1%58.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%59.8°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 50°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-LE50
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 50°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗