KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

49%

44%

25%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

HRESNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.75u · HRES −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	40.5%	27.8%	57.6%	41.0%	64.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	40.5%	27.8%	57.6%	41.0%	64.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	40.5%	27.8%	57.6%	41.0%	64.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	40.5%	27.8%	57.6%	41.0%	64.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	40.5%	27.8%	57.6%	41.0%	64.7%
2026-10-18T08:00:43+00:00	37.3%	27.8%	57.6%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	37.3%	27.8%	57.6%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	37.3%	27.8%	57.6%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	37.3%	27.8%	57.6%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	37.3%	27.8%	57.6%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	37.3%	43.8%	61.5%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	37.3%	43.8%	61.5%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	37.3%	43.8%	61.5%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	49.2%	43.8%	61.5%	25.0%	57.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	49.2%	43.8%	61.5%	25.0%	57.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	57.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	57.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	56.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	55.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	55.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	52.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗