KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

49%

44%

25%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

HRESNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.75u · HRES −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	96.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	30.3%	—	69.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	69.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	98.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	8.8%	—	47.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	14.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	7.1%	—	53.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	73.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	35.5%	54.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	92.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	23.5%	47.9%	19.9%	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	47.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	35.7%	46.4%	62.9%	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	68.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	42.4%	80.0%	33.7%	21.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	50.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	37.5%	60.3%	37.5%	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	28.3%	38.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	27.9%	60.7%	28.6%	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	22.0%	27.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	26.2%	35.4%	22.8%	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	32.6%	22.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	57.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	57.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	56.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	55.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	55.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	52.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗