WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 51°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
HRES
64%
WN2
52%
ICON
45%
AIFS
45%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 68.4¢Risks 68.40u
VS
AIFSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.60u · AIFS −31.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0010-11 15:1110-11 21:1310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T15:11:26+00:0015.8%92.1%36.2%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:0015.8%92.1%36.2%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:0015.8%92.1%36.2%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:0015.8%92.1%33.0%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:0015.8%92.1%33.0%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:0015.8%92.1%33.0%65.4%84.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:0028.5%92.1%33.0%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:0028.5%92.1%33.0%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:0028.5%92.1%33.0%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:0028.5%92.1%33.0%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:0028.5%92.1%33.0%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:0028.6%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:0028.6%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:0028.6%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:0044.7%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:0044.7%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0044.7%92.1%51.8%64.3%44.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%56.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.8482
IFS HRES64%52.9°F6.6°F2026-10-11 12:000.4134
NWS forecast53%51.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 14:000.2852
National Blend53%51.0°F6.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.2809
WeatherNext 252%50.7°F4.5°F2026-10-11 12:000.2683
ICON45%49.6°F7.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.2016
AIFS Single45%49.8°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.1998

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗