KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 51°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

64%

52%

45%

45%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.4¢Risks 68.40u

AIFSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.60u · AIFS −31.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	95.1%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	94.8%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	96.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	82.5%	94.8%	57.0%	—	65.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	84.8%	78.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.0%	46.9%	56.8%	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	53.2%	56.4%	32.3%	—	50.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	45.9%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	87.1%	52.5%	48.3%	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	78.0%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	37.9%	24.8%	37.1%	—	28.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	63.2%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	24.4%	34.7%	31.4%	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	19.0%	42.5%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	42.3%	44.2%	34.8%	—	28.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	21.1%	40.1%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	35.9%	30.3%	32.1%	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	22.8%	40.6%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	38.2%	35.1%	10.9%	29.2%	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	42.2%	44.4%	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	53.5%	43.0%	16.0%	—	21.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	45.2%	40.5%	14.5%	—	16.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	66.9%	40.1%	22.7%	43.8%	18.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	69.8%	37.3%	19.1%	—	17.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	68.1%	31.9%	23.0%	30.7%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	58.3%	35.0%	8.6%	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	52.9%	44.2%	6.3%	25.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	23.6%	7.5%	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.9%	30.3%	8.3%	3.7%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	26.7%	5.8%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	56.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.8482
IFS HRES	64%	52.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.4134
NWS forecast	53%	51.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	53%	51.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2809
WeatherNext 2	52%	50.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2683
ICON	45%	49.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	45%	49.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1998

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 51°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗