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KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
ICON
79%
HRES
54%
WN2
21%
AIFS
8%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.7¢Risks 45.75u
VS
AIFSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.25u · AIFS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.3% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00IFS HRES: 38.2% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00ICON: 78.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:0010-10 22:2610-11 06:4610-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:26:42+00:008.1%87.9%29.9%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:008.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:008.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:008.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:0010.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:0010.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:0010.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T03:44:35+00:0010.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:0010.1%87.9%37.3%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:0010.1%87.9%48.4%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:0010.1%87.9%48.4%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:0010.1%87.9%48.4%38.2%78.6%
2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:0015.3%87.9%48.4%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:0015.3%87.9%48.4%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:0015.3%87.9%48.4%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:0015.3%87.9%48.4%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:0015.3%87.9%48.4%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:0015.3%83.4%21.3%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:0015.3%83.4%21.3%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:0015.3%83.4%21.3%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:008.6%83.4%21.3%53.6%78.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:008.4%83.1%21.4%53.6%78.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%56.9°F4.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.6906
ICON79%60.3°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.6178
IFS HRES54%53.1°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.2873
NWS forecast53%53.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
National Blend41%51.0°F6.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.1689
WeatherNext 221%48.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0458
AIFS Single8%45.2°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0071

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗