KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

54%

21%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.7¢Risks 45.75u

AIFSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.25u · AIFS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	91.2%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	90.4%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	88.6%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	99.8%	93.4%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	72.0%	89.8%	43.0%	—	51.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	74.6%	66.3%	—	39.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	11.0%	32.3%	41.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	37.5%	40.5%	19.5%	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	30.4%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	76.2%	36.1%	32.2%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	63.4%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	22.8%	13.1%	22.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	45.5%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.4%	19.6%	17.2%	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	8.8%	25.3%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	24.7%	26.3%	19.0%	—	14.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.6%	22.6%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	19.0%	15.1%	16.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	10.1%	22.0%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	19.8%	17.6%	3.8%	13.7%	9.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	22.3%	24.0%	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	31.0%	22.4%	5.7%	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	23.4%	19.9%	4.8%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	42.6%	19.1%	8.5%	21.7%	6.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	44.9%	16.6%	6.4%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	42.0%	12.7%	7.9%	12.0%	4.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	31.2%	13.9%	2.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	7.0%	1.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	9.6%	1.5%	0.5%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	7.3%	0.8%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	56.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6906
ICON	79%	60.3°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.6178
IFS HRES	54%	53.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2873
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
National Blend	41%	51.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1689
WeatherNext 2	21%	48.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0458
AIFS Single	8%	45.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0071

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗