Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
WN2 +46.52u · EPS −46.52u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS forecast | 14% | 37.0°F | 4.2°F | 2026-10-14 02:00 | 0.0202 |
| WeatherNext 2 | 14% | 37.4°F | 4.5°F | 2026-10-13 12:00 | 0.0190 |
| AIFS Single | 9% | 38.1°F | 4.1°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | 0.0074 |
| National Blend | 8% | 35.0°F | 1.8°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | 0.0067 |
| IFS HRES | 7% | 40.0°F | 5.0°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | 0.0045 |
| ICON | 5% | 39.1°F | 4.1°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | 0.0029 |
| IFS Ensemble | <1% | 38.3°F | 1.9°F | 2026-10-13 00:00 | 0.0000 |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KBUF-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC
Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗