KBUF / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.0¢Risks 3.48u

EPSNO 93.0¢Risks 46.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.52u · EPS −46.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	12.6%	0.6%	8.7%	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	6.2%	3.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	57.6%	55.3%	3.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	21.8%	26.1%	5.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	4.5%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	6.6%	34.5%	1.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	11.1%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	29.1%	26.2%	1.7%	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.0%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	12.9%	8.6%	1.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	11.3%	5.3%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.4%	4.2%	0.8%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	9.2%	4.2%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	7.1%	4.7%	0.7%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	7.2%	5.0%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.5%	5.3%	0.9%	4.5%	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	1.8%	3.5%	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.4%	3.1%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	1.6%	0.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.3%	1.1%	0.2%	7.5%	1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	1.8%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.9%	1.3%	0.2%	1.3%	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.8%	1.5%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%	1.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	37.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0202
WeatherNext 2	14%	37.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0190
AIFS Single	9%	38.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0074
National Blend	8%	35.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0067
IFS HRES	7%	40.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0045
ICON	5%	39.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0029
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗