KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

87%

82%

82%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 88.4¢Risks 44.22u

HRESNO 11.6¢Risks 5.78u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.78u · HRES −5.78u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:37+00:00	51.4%	85.6%	92.7%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	51.4%	85.6%	92.7%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	51.4%	85.6%	92.7%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	51.4%	85.6%	92.7%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:32+00:00	51.4%	85.6%	92.7%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:42+00:00	51.4%	71.3%	84.5%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	51.4%	71.3%	84.5%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	51.4%	71.3%	84.5%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	85.9%	71.3%	84.5%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.4%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.4%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.4%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.4%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	85.8%	71.3%	84.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	84.9%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	84.9%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	84.9%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	84.9%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	84.9%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:27+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	96.9%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:03+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	96.8%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	98.3%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	98.3%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	98.5%	71.3%	98.3%	87.5%	78.6%
2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	98.3%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	98.3%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	98.3%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	98.3%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	98.3%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	96.6%	71.3%	94.6%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	96.6%	83.0%	94.6%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	96.6%	83.0%	94.6%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	95.0%	83.0%	94.6%	82.0%	86.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	94.9%	82.5%	94.5%	82.0%	86.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	61.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0026
WeatherNext 2	94%	59.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0030
ICON	87%	60.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0177
IFS Ensemble	82%	56.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0306
IFS HRES	82%	58.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0324
National Blend	65%	55.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1253
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗