KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

87%

82%

82%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 88.4¢Risks 44.22u

HRESNO 11.6¢Risks 5.78u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.78u · HRES −5.78u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	20.6%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	60.0%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	72.0%	47.2%	31.7%	—	70.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	78.5%	76.3%	71.5%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	20.5%	57.6%	51.5%	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	86.0%	64.8%	80.0%	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	21.2%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	87.5%	86.7%	87.5%	—	70.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	68.2%	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	83.9%	90.6%	88.2%	—	66.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	86.5%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	83.4%	90.6%	82.8%	—	74.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	87.3%	91.9%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	90.6%	88.9%	81.0%	—	79.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	90.0%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	93.6%	91.4%	91.8%	—	85.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	92.0%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	92.3%	91.9%	92.7%	—	86.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	90.8%	91.3%	0.9%	—	89.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	92.0%	92.0%	94.9%	—	92.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	91.8%	93.4%	93.4%	—	94.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	92.5%	96.7%	92.9%	97.4%	94.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	92.8%	95.7%	95.1%	—	95.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	93.9%	96.8%	97.4%	97.8%	97.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	97.5%	98.0%	97.7%	—	98.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.8%	99.2%	99.3%	98.4%	99.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.1%	98.7%	98.2%	—	95.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.3%	99.1%	98.9%	97.6%	98.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	99.8%	99.8%	99.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	61.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0026
WeatherNext 2	94%	59.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0030
ICON	87%	60.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0177
IFS Ensemble	82%	56.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0306
IFS HRES	82%	58.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0324
National Blend	65%	55.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1253
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗