KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.6¢Risks 5.28u

WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.73u · WN2 −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	2.3%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	2.3%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	2.3%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	2.3%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	2.3%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	25.5%	2.7%	1.0%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	25.5%	1.3%	1.0%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	25.5%	1.3%	1.0%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	4.6%	1.3%	1.0%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	4.6%	1.3%	1.0%	6.9%	9.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.3%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.3%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.3%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.3%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	20.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	20.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	20.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	20.3%	1.3%	0.8%	5.5%	5.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	35.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0412
National Blend	12%	36.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0149
IFS HRES	6%	40.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0030
ICON	5%	39.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0026
IFS Ensemble	1%	39.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
NWS forecast	1%	42.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	42.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗