KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.6¢Risks 5.28u

WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.73u · WN2 −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	18.1%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	31.2%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	40.6%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	28.1%	52.8%	4.5%	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.6%	36.4%	4.9%	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	46.2%	17.9%	2.5%	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	9.3%	14.9%	0.7%	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	3.3%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	9.0%	0.2%	2.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	12.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	19.0%	0.6%	2.6%	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	15.9%	1.8%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.0%	2.7%	5.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.0%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	4.2%	3.8%	0.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	8.8%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	3.8%	5.6%	0.2%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	3.1%	4.8%	0.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	2.9%	2.7%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.7%	1.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	5.2%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	2.4%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	35.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0412
National Blend	12%	36.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0149
IFS HRES	6%	40.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0030
ICON	5%	39.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0026
IFS Ensemble	1%	39.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
NWS forecast	1%	42.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	42.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗