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KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
AIFS
90%
HRES
61%
EPS
54%
ICON
41%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.45u
VS
ICONNO 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.55u · ICON −31.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00ICON: 41.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00ICON: 41.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00ICON: 41.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00ICON: 41.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00ICON: 41.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:0089.8%53.5%95.7%60.6%41.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:0089.8%53.5%95.7%60.6%41.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:0089.8%53.5%95.7%60.6%41.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:0089.8%53.5%95.7%60.6%41.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0089.8%53.5%95.7%60.6%41.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%69.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
AIFS Single90%67.6°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES61%62.2°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend55%61.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%60.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
ICON41%58.3°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗