KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

61%

54%

41%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

ICONNO 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.55u · ICON −31.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	34.2%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	12.8%	65.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	56.3%	81.6%	3.0%	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	48.5%	55.1%	60.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	35.8%	81.6%	53.0%	—	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	52.4%	70.5%	57.9%	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	4.5%	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	65.5%	69.2%	59.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	70.4%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	72.4%	67.0%	61.3%	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	78.5%	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	77.0%	78.4%	76.3%	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	72.4%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	75.3%	84.7%	76.0%	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	73.5%	78.1%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	74.1%	86.6%	67.9%	—	58.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	70.2%	86.8%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	72.7%	86.3%	68.9%	0.0%	64.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	71.4%	82.5%	1.2%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	73.0%	84.0%	72.0%	45.4%	65.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	75.6%	84.0%	73.7%	—	68.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	82.6%	85.6%	72.4%	0.1%	68.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	80.0%	78.1%	68.7%	—	61.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	79.0%	83.5%	60.6%	40.7%	60.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	84.5%	84.5%	68.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	90.5%	85.4%	79.8%	69.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	67.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	62.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	60.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	58.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗