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KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
79%
ICON
32%
HRES
21%
EPS
17%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.20u
VS
EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.80u · EPS −48.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00ICON: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:0080.6%16.8%82.1%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:0080.6%16.7%82.1%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:0080.6%16.7%82.1%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:0080.6%16.7%82.9%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:0080.6%16.7%82.9%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:0080.6%16.7%82.9%23.0%35.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:0077.3%16.7%82.9%23.0%32.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:0077.3%16.7%82.9%23.0%32.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:0077.3%16.7%82.9%23.0%32.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:0077.3%16.7%82.9%23.0%32.5%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:0077.3%16.7%82.9%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:0077.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:0077.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:0077.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:0079.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:0079.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:0079.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:0079.3%16.7%85.7%21.0%32.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%69.1°F3.4°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single79%69.0°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend33%64.0°F3.3°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON32%63.7°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES21%61.9°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%62.8°F2.8°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗