KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

79%

32%

21%

17%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.80u · EPS −48.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	2.4%	33.0%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	23.5%	50.7%	0.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	17.0%	21.5%	25.4%	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	9.3%	47.7%	18.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	17.4%	32.3%	21.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	0.3%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	25.8%	29.3%	20.7%	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	29.6%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.7%	25.5%	20.8%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	36.8%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	33.9%	35.6%	33.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	27.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	29.6%	42.3%	30.4%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	26.5%	31.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	25.9%	42.8%	20.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	21.3%	41.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	22.1%	39.2%	19.0%	0.0%	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	19.8%	31.5%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	19.9%	32.0%	19.1%	5.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	20.8%	30.4%	19.1%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	26.6%	30.9%	16.6%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	21.9%	20.0%	12.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	19.1%	24.0%	7.9%	2.8%	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	23.2%	23.2%	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	30.5%	22.2%	16.3%	9.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	69.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	63.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	61.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	62.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗