KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

65%

57%

55%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u

HRESNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.45u · HRES −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	95.1%	57.9%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	95.1%	57.9%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	95.1%	57.9%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	95.1%	57.9%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	90.9%	57.9%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:17+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	94.6%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	34.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	64.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	64.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	64.9%
2026-10-13T21:42:59+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	95.2%	58.1%	64.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	95.2%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	96.1%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	96.1%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	94.5%	56.6%	96.1%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	93.0%	56.6%	96.1%	55.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	93.0%	56.6%	96.1%	55.0%	64.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	70.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	66.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	63.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	63.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗