KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

65%

57%

55%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u

HRESNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.45u · HRES −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	79.4%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	52.6%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	7.7%	40.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	45.1%	72.5%	23.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	66.3%	65.7%	60.8%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	56.8%	62.7%	28.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	50.0%	77.6%	32.3%	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	6.5%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	63.1%	78.7%	67.0%	—	55.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	47.4%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	63.7%	57.8%	62.9%	—	46.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	56.3%	37.6%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	44.5%	48.2%	48.2%	—	45.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	27.6%	54.7%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	31.3%	50.0%	40.4%	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	19.7%	58.9%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	21.2%	47.9%	23.5%	0.1%	29.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	25.3%	45.8%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	30.1%	44.5%	25.5%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	34.6%	40.0%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	34.1%	30.0%	3.1%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	41.6%	34.7%	8.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	51.2%	36.5%	8.5%	28.7%	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	46.1%	30.2%	10.3%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	42.0%	33.1%	7.0%	20.0%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	41.7%	35.0%	8.6%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	51.4%	51.4%	16.3%	30.5%	22.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	50.0%	9.9%	—	17.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	70.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	66.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	63.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	63.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	63.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗