KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 15.8¢Risks 15.85u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +84.15u · EPS −84.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:43+00:00	52.1%	1.7%	44.1%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	52.1%	1.7%	44.1%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	52.1%	1.7%	44.1%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	52.1%	1.7%	44.1%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	52.1%	0.3%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	52.1%	0.3%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	52.1%	0.3%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	52.1%	0.3%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	39.5%	0.3%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:17+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	42.0%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	9.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	30.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:59+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	44.4%	11.2%	30.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	44.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	45.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	45.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	45.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	53.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	53.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	53.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	53.0%	0.2%	48.4%	9.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	53.0%	0.2%	48.4%	16.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:34+00:00	53.0%	0.1%	45.7%	16.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	53.0%	0.1%	45.7%	16.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	53.0%	0.1%	45.7%	16.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	42.5%	0.1%	45.7%	16.8%	33.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	43.4%	0.1%	45.7%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	45.7%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	45.7%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	45.7%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	32.6%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	32.6%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	43.4%	0.2%	32.6%	16.9%	33.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	42.8%	0.2%	29.6%	5.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	42.8%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	42.8%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	29.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.6%	5.2%	14.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	35.9%	0.1%	37.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	35.9%	0.1%	37.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	35.9%	0.1%	37.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	35.9%	0.1%	37.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	35.9%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	29.6%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	21.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	36.4%	0.1%	31.3%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	36.4%	0.4%	31.4%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	36.4%	0.4%	31.4%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	36.4%	0.4%	31.4%	12.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	27.8%	0.4%	31.4%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	27.8%	0.4%	31.4%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	31.4%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	31.4%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	31.4%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	25.9%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	25.9%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	27.8%	0.3%	25.9%	4.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	25.9%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	21.6%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	21.6%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	21.6%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	21.6%	0.3%	31.4%	5.7%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	69.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	63.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗