KBUF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 15.8¢Risks 15.85u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +84.15u · EPS −84.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	27.5%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.2%	3.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	4.4%	16.2%	1.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	10.9%	10.6%	8.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	6.0%	8.1%	1.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	3.6%	14.9%	1.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	6.1%	13.8%	7.4%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	5.2%	3.8%	5.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	3.1%	0.9%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	2.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.4%	1.4%	0.7%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	2.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	69.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	63.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗