KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

63%

19%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

ICONNO 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.70u · ICON −59.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	97.3%	54.1%	89.6%	68.2%	27.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	88.5%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	88.5%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	92.1%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	92.1%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	92.1%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	89.3%	40.5%	92.1%	46.4%	70.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	92.1%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	92.1%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	92.1%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	92.1%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	89.6%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	83.3%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	83.3%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	83.3%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	83.3%	40.5%	89.3%	53.6%	69.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	79.0%	42.6%	93.1%	61.6%	61.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	79.0%	42.6%	89.3%	61.6%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	79.0%	42.6%	89.3%	61.6%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	79.0%	42.6%	89.3%	61.6%	61.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	83.2%	42.6%	89.3%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	83.2%	42.6%	89.3%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	83.2%	42.6%	89.3%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	83.2%	42.6%	89.3%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	83.2%	42.6%	89.3%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	83.2%	41.8%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	83.2%	41.8%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	83.2%	41.8%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	66.9%	41.8%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	66.8%	41.8%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	90.6%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	85.2%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	85.2%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	85.2%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	66.8%	45.3%	85.2%	32.3%	37.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	85.2%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	85.2%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	85.2%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	85.2%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	63.6%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	77.4%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	69.5%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	69.5%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	69.5%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	62.0%	45.3%	69.5%	26.1%	15.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	65.4%	45.3%	69.5%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	65.4%	45.3%	69.5%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	65.4%	45.3%	69.5%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	65.4%	45.3%	69.5%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	65.4%	15.0%	73.3%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	65.4%	15.0%	73.3%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	65.4%	15.0%	73.3%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	65.4%	15.0%	73.3%	21.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	61.1%	15.9%	73.3%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	61.1%	15.9%	73.3%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	61.1%	11.2%	73.3%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	61.1%	11.2%	73.3%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	61.1%	11.2%	71.4%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	61.1%	11.2%	71.4%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	61.1%	11.2%	71.4%	21.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	71.4%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	71.4%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	71.4%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	71.4%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	71.4%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	55.6%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	51.9%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	51.9%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	51.9%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	51.9%	11.2%	68.3%	22.3%	10.5%
2026-10-20T15:31:35+00:00	64.9%	16.9%	77.5%	19.4%	7.4%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00	64.9%	16.9%	77.5%	19.4%	7.4%
2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00	63.0%	16.9%	73.2%	19.4%	7.4%
2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00	63.0%	16.9%	73.2%	19.4%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	63.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗