KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

63%

19%

17%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

ICONNO 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.70u · ICON −59.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	22.2%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	18.1%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	3.9%	50.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	50.7%	4.9%	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	52.2%	19.9%	21.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	50.0%	16.4%	45.4%	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	28.8%	8.7%	63.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	0.4%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	41.7%	7.1%	40.1%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	17.3%	12.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	24.1%	17.8%	26.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	15.0%	20.2%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	6.1%	19.6%	9.8%	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	5.3%	23.8%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	10.2%	21.8%	4.6%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	15.2%	28.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	7.1%	19.7%	2.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	8.0%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	9.0%	28.2%	2.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	11.2%	27.6%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	6.8%	33.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	13.2%	46.4%	0.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	11.2%	40.1%	0.6%	7.5%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	34.9%	0.8%	—	5.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	31.9%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	63.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗