KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

48%

48%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

EPSNO 47.6¢Risks 47.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.55u · EPS −47.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:50+00:00	75.1%	38.1%	67.7%	26.9%	50.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	75.1%	38.1%	67.7%	26.9%	50.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	75.1%	38.1%	69.1%	26.9%	50.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	75.1%	38.1%	69.1%	26.9%	50.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	75.1%	38.1%	69.1%	26.9%	50.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:00+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	69.1%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	69.1%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	69.1%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	69.1%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	69.1%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	85.1%	38.1%	78.0%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	85.1%	20.9%	78.0%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	85.1%	20.9%	78.0%	34.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	80.8%	20.9%	78.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	80.8%	20.9%	78.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	72.4%	20.0%	79.2%	41.6%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	72.4%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	72.4%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	58.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	72.4%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	58.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	83.3%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	83.3%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	83.3%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	83.3%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	83.3%	20.0%	81.6%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	83.3%	21.9%	91.0%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	83.3%	21.9%	91.0%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	83.3%	21.9%	91.0%	41.6%	36.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	76.6%	21.9%	91.0%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	76.6%	21.9%	91.0%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	91.0%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	91.0%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	91.0%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	76.6%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	86.3%	30.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	86.3%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	64.9%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	84.1%	47.9%	48.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	67.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	65.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	62.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗