KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

48%

48%

21%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

EPSNO 47.6¢Risks 47.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.55u · EPS −47.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	14.5%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	11.0%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	1.8%	36.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	21.4%	36.9%	2.2%	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	37.8%	11.3%	12.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	35.1%	8.7%	30.9%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	16.9%	3.9%	47.6%	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	0.1%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	26.5%	3.0%	25.1%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	8.5%	5.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	12.7%	8.6%	14.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	6.9%	10.0%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	2.2%	9.4%	3.9%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	1.8%	11.8%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	4.0%	10.2%	1.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	6.3%	14.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	2.4%	8.6%	0.8%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	2.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	13.1%	0.7%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.8%	12.3%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	1.9%	15.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	24.4%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.3%	19.1%	0.1%	2.0%	2.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	15.0%	0.1%	—	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	67.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	65.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	62.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗