KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

66%

59%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

HRESNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.05u · HRES −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	96.4%	77.0%	93.8%	52.5%	24.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	96.4%	60.1%	93.8%	52.5%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	96.4%	60.1%	93.8%	52.5%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	95.2%	60.1%	93.5%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	95.2%	60.1%	93.5%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	93.5%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	93.5%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	96.2%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	96.2%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	96.2%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	95.2%	59.2%	96.2%	52.5%	24.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	96.2%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	96.2%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	96.2%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	96.2%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	88.7%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	85.3%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	85.3%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	85.3%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	85.3%	59.2%	94.0%	51.9%	65.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	68.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	63.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	62.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗