KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

66%

59%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

HRESNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.05u · HRES −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	22.0%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	79.3%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	2.5%	38.0%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	45.8%	40.9%	8.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	17.0%	65.0%	65.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	35.8%	59.8%	25.1%	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	26.8%	60.3%	40.5%	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	0.1%	64.4%	—	—	29.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	18.4%	55.8%	24.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	26.0%	56.0%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	32.2%	57.8%	25.5%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	31.8%	75.8%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	34.7%	70.3%	16.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	13.7%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	27.1%	58.7%	8.2%	—	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	21.1%	55.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	14.5%	57.2%	4.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	14.4%	61.5%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	8.5%	57.6%	19.0%	33.1%	9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	54.5%	0.0%	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	68.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	63.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	62.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗