KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.3¢Risks 11.35u

EPSNO 88.6¢Risks 88.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.65u · EPS −88.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.1%	6.2%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	3.3%	6.9%	3.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.2%	0.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	7.6%	3.0%	2.2%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	14.5%	3.8%	0.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	15.3%	3.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	33.0%	2.1%	4.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	28.1%	1.4%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	4.5%	1.5%	0.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	10.3%	0.3%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	6.3%	0.7%	1.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	19.6%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	26.3%	0.3%	1.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	19.7%	0.3%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	21.2%	0.1%	1.0%	—	13.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	27.1%	0.1%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	0.0%	0.3%	11.9%	9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.0%	0.4%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	35.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	36.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	37.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	39.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	38.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	37.4°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗