KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

22%

19%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.60u · HRES −75.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	78.5%	54.2%	80.7%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	78.3%	54.2%	80.6%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	80.6%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	80.6%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	80.6%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	78.3%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	12.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	35.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	35.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	35.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	70.9%	21.9%	35.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	70.9%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	68.1%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	74.8%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	68.1%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	68.1%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	55.5%	51.0%	68.1%	29.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	56.6%	51.0%	68.1%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	56.6%	51.0%	68.1%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	56.6%	51.0%	68.1%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	56.6%	51.0%	68.1%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	56.6%	51.0%	68.1%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	56.6%	19.5%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	56.6%	19.5%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	56.6%	19.5%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	30.2%	19.5%	65.0%	8.0%	24.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	30.2%	19.7%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	65.0%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.7%	24.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	45.7%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	30.2%	21.9%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	30.2%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	30.2%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	30.2%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	18.7%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	18.7%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	18.7%	21.8%	41.5%	7.3%	10.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	62.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	60.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	58.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	54.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	53.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗