KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

22%

19%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.60u · HRES −75.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	0.3%	62.6%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	6.9%	51.4%	11.2%	—	29.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	5.5%	26.0%	21.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	0.8%	39.4%	3.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	27.9%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	7.2%	15.9%	1.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	0.4%	14.8%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	11.6%	14.3%	9.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	2.8%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	1.7%	15.6%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.9%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.3%	12.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.2%	17.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	12.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	12.4%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	62.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	60.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	58.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	54.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	53.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗