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KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
23%
HRES
21%
ICON
14%
WN2
6%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 11.6¢Risks 11.60u
VS
EPSNO 88.4¢Risks 88.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.40u · EPS −88.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:0023.2%0.0%5.9%21.2%13.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0023.2%0.0%5.9%21.2%13.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0023.2%0.0%5.9%21.2%13.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0023.2%0.0%5.9%21.2%13.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast28%35.0°F4.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single23%35.5°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES21%36.5°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON14%37.0°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%36.0°F3.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%38.9°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%37.9°F1.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗