KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

21%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.6¢Risks 11.60u

EPSNO 88.4¢Risks 88.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.40u · EPS −88.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	18.9%	0.7%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.5%	0.7%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.7%	1.3%	0.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	4.8%	0.5%	1.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	4.9%	0.8%	1.0%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.5%	5.8%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	10.1%	0.4%	4.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	29.6%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	24.1%	0.3%	2.5%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	31.8%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	30.6%	0.3%	1.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	33.5%	0.2%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	13.6%	0.7%	1.8%	4.9%	12.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	28%	35.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	35.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	36.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	37.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	36.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	38.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	37.9°F	1.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗