WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
75%
ICON
66%
EPS
42%
HRES
36%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u
VS
HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · HRES −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 75.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 75.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00IFS HRES: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS HRES: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00ICON: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00ICON: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:0082.7%41.2%95.0%45.8%82.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:0082.7%41.2%96.9%45.8%82.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:0082.7%41.2%96.9%45.8%82.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0082.7%41.2%96.9%45.8%82.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:0087.1%41.2%96.9%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0087.1%41.2%96.9%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0087.1%41.2%96.9%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0087.1%41.2%96.9%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0087.1%41.2%96.9%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:0087.1%41.9%99.7%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0087.1%41.9%99.7%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0087.1%41.9%99.7%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0075.4%41.9%99.7%36.5%65.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0075.4%41.9%99.7%36.5%65.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%69.8°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single75%61.9°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend71%61.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON66%61.0°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%59.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%57.6°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%56.5°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗