KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

75%

66%

42%

36%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · HRES −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	43.5%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	5.4%	82.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	13.0%	90.4%	1.0%	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	19.9%	86.5%	26.6%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	71.1%	91.3%	83.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	48.4%	80.0%	33.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.0%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	46.7%	82.2%	50.0%	—	20.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	61.0%	91.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	62.9%	84.9%	53.5%	61.3%	36.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	84.5%	—	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	61.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	61.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	57.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	56.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗