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KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
86%
ICON
67%
EPS
38%
HRES
37%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u
VS
HRESNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.75u · HRES −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0010-20 04:0310-20 08:3710-20 13:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:0078.5%35.0%98.1%18.9%58.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0078.5%35.0%98.1%18.9%58.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0078.5%35.0%97.3%18.9%58.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0078.5%35.0%97.3%18.9%58.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0078.5%35.0%97.3%18.9%58.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0085.8%35.0%97.3%18.9%67.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0085.8%35.0%97.3%18.9%67.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:0085.8%35.0%97.3%18.9%67.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0085.8%35.0%97.3%18.9%67.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:0085.8%38.3%97.8%36.7%67.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0085.8%38.3%97.8%36.7%67.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0085.8%38.3%97.8%36.7%67.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0085.8%38.3%97.8%36.7%67.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%67.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%64.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend71%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON67%61.7°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%58.4°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES37%57.8°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗