KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

68%

38%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

HRESNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.75u · HRES −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	37.2%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	3.8%	77.2%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	9.6%	87.0%	0.6%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	15.2%	82.0%	21.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	64.2%	87.8%	77.8%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	40.5%	73.9%	26.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	38.5%	76.2%	41.7%	—	15.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	52.6%	87.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	54.4%	79.2%	44.8%	52.6%	28.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	24.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	68%	61.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	58.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	57.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗