KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

65%

45%

20%

11%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	53.5%	38.5%	72.1%	40.2%	31.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	53.5%	38.5%	72.8%	40.2%	31.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	53.5%	38.5%	72.8%	40.2%	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	53.5%	38.5%	72.8%	40.2%	31.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	53.5%	38.5%	72.8%	40.2%	31.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	58.1%	38.5%	72.8%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	58.1%	38.5%	72.8%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	58.1%	38.5%	72.8%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	58.1%	38.5%	72.8%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	58.1%	23.3%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	58.1%	23.3%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	58.1%	23.3%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	58.1%	23.3%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	53.7%	23.5%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	53.7%	23.5%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	53.7%	18.6%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	53.7%	18.6%	76.0%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	53.7%	18.6%	76.7%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	53.7%	18.6%	76.7%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	53.7%	18.6%	76.7%	18.2%	29.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	76.7%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	76.7%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	76.7%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	76.7%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	76.7%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	60.9%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	65.1%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	65.1%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	65.1%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	65.1%	18.6%	84.3%	28.8%	69.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	97.8%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	97.8%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	97.8%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	92.4%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	92.4%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	53.2%	20.0%	92.4%	19.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	92.4%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	92.4%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	92.4%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	92.4%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	92.4%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	57.2%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	65.0%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	65.0%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	65.0%	20.0%	94.3%	11.0%	45.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	60.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	57.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	54.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗