KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

65%

45%

20%

11%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	25.7%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	1.7%	65.8%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	4.9%	78.1%	0.2%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	8.2%	70.9%	12.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	49.2%	78.4%	64.9%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	26.1%	59.5%	15.4%	—	14.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	23.8%	61.5%	26.5%	—	7.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	35.8%	76.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	37.1%	64.6%	28.4%	35.4%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	60.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	57.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	54.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗