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KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
76%
AIFS
59%
HRES
51%
EPS
45%
ICON
28%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 52.0¢Risks 52.00u
VS
ICONNO 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.00u · ICON −48.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:0058.9%44.6%76.2%50.6%27.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0058.9%44.6%76.2%50.6%27.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0058.9%44.6%76.2%50.6%27.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0058.9%44.6%76.2%50.6%27.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0058.9%44.6%76.2%50.6%27.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 276%66.4°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single59%63.8°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%63.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES51%62.6°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%62.0°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON28%56.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗