KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

59%

51%

45%

28%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

ICONNO 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.00u · ICON −48.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	51.8%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	6.7%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	34.8%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	3.8%	65.2%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	57.0%	64.4%	10.5%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	63.6%	74.6%	42.7%	69.0%	38.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	84.4%	—	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	66.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	63.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	62.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	62.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	56.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗